Uptodate Article: “Evaluating diagnostic tests”
Calculating likelihood ratios (LR) using sensitivity and specificity is a common practice in medical diagnosis and other fields. Here’s the step-by-step guide:
Positive Likelihood Ratio (LR+)
LR+ = Sensitivity / (1 – Specificity)
Negative Likelihood Ratio (LR-)
LR- = (1 – Sensitivity) / Specificity
Where:
- Sensitivity: True Positive Rate (proportion of true positives)
- Specificity: True Negative Rate (proportion of true negatives)
Example
Suppose a diagnostic test has:
- Sensitivity: 0.9 (90% chance of positive test result if disease is present)
- Specificity: 0.95 (95% chance of negative test result if disease is absent)
Calculating LR+
LR+ = 0.9 / (1 – 0.95)
= 0.9 / 0.05
= 18
Calculating LR-
LR- = (1 – 0.9) / 0.95
= 0.1 / 0.95
= 0.105
Interpreting Likelihood Ratios
- LR+ | 1: Supports presence of disease
- LR- < 1: Supports absence of disease
- LR+ | 10 or LR- < 0.1: Strong evidence
- LR+ < 0.1 or LR- | 10: Weak evidence
Real-World Applications
Likelihood ratios are used in:
- Medical diagnosis
- Financial risk assessment
- Machine learning
- Forensic science
Important Considerations
- Prior probabilities: Incorporate prior probabilities to calculate posterior probabilities using Bayes’ theorem.
- Model assumptions: Ensure the statistical model accurately reflects the underlying data.
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